The rest of the season is played out 10,000 times. Each simulated week draws every team's score from a blend of its projected lineup and what it has actually scored, then the league's tiebreaks and 6-team bracket settle the rest.
* 1.01 odds are approximate: next year's first rookie pick goes to the lowest Max PF among the teams that miss the playoffs.
Seasons simulated
10,000
Playoff spots
6
First-round byes
2
Seed
1995095813
Playoff and title odds
Season odds from 10,000 simulated seasons, ranked by title odds, then playoff odds
Team
Playoffs %
Title %
W-L
Exp wins
Bye %
Last %
1.01 %* (approximate)
PeterNjigba’s in Paris
Playoff odds over time
One board per team, one column per week, 5% per dot, ranked by the latest playoff odds. The big number is the latest run. Unlit columns are weeks still to come.
01PeterNjigba’s in Paris
99.8 percent99.8-0.2 since W5
100500
99.9
50.3
2-2
8.6
75.5
0
0
Peter sits at 99.8 percent to make the playoffs with a 2-2 record, which just proves the regular season was always theater for him.
CarlosThe Mayeflower
99.5
19.8
3-1
8.4
54.3
0
0
Carlos owns a 53.7 percent bye odds at 3-1, the quiet guy in the room who somehow already has a foot on the first seed.
BrandonKraft YAC & Cheese
99.1
19.6
3-1
8.3
52.3
0
0
EthanLove on the Spectrum
76.0
4.6
1-3
5.7
2.1
0.7
0
Ethan's 75.5 percent playoff odds are being carried by a 1-3 record, the mathematical equivalent of a participation trophy for showing up.
Navid
93.0
3.4
3-1
7.3
13.4
<0.1
0.2
Navid sits at 3-1 with a 92.5 percent playoff shot but only 3.3 percent to win it, a man who gets invited to every party and sent home at midnight.
JustinShough and Fhough
59.5
1.1
2-2
5.6
1.1
1.3
17.4
Justin's 59.9 percent playoff odds come with a 1.2 percent bye shot, which is the simulator's polite way of saying no.
Alex
50.8
1.1
2-2
5.3
1.3
1.8
6.0
Anish
15.8
0.1
1-3
4.1
<0.1
11.9
15.6
DevanteLet A Naysayer Know
3.3
0
1-3
3.2
0
39.3
1.1
Most likely to finish last: Matthew
3.1
0
2-2
3.4
0
44.8
59.7
Ranked by title odds, then playoff odds.Likeliest to finish last